CLIMATE JUSTICE AT THE CROSSROADS: KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE RECENT COP29 SUMMIT

Gaurav Harnwal

The 29th Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024. The phenomenon of climate change and climate justice are interlinked with each other. Climate Change refers to long-term changes in temperature and weather patterns, primarily caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels.Climate Justice addresses the inequity of climate change, emphasizing that those who contributed the most to emissions (wealthy nations and corporations) should help vulnerable communities that are least responsible but most affected by climate change

The term "Climate Justice" gained prominence with the 1999 report "Greenhouse Gangsters v. Climate Justice" by Corpwatch, which critiqued corporate solutions to climate change and advocated for principles like the polluter pays, just transition, and grassroots intersectionality.

In sphere of Climate justice, UNFCCC has been a crucial platform that recognizes the need for Climate Justice, the negotiations at different COPs have slowly begun to recognize the demands of vulnerable states & civil society. However, these processes have by themselves proved to be unfit for the task in their current format. The top-down & exclusionary means of negotiations, influenced by major emitting states & COP, have proven too slow and ineffective to face the gargantuan task we must confront.

Key Takeaways from COP-29

1. A new global climate finance target.

New collective Quantified Goal for climate finance to support developing countries in 2 parts:

a) $1.3 trillion per year to be enabled by all actors.

b) $300 billion for developed countries to take the lead on delivering.

Both targets met through public & private sources. But while they are significantly more than past goals, they still fall short of financial needs of vulnerable nations. Also it does not build on commitments to reduce fossil fuels.

2. Unclear on transition away from fossil fuels.

A call to "transition away" from coal, oil & gas made during last year's COP-28 summit in Dubai was touted as groundbreaking. But the latest talks only referred to the Dubai deal, without explicitly repeating the call for a transition away from fossil fuels. There is a lack of clear strategy for reducing fossil fuel dependence which underscores the complexities involved in balancing environmental imperative with economic realities.

3. China's ascent amidst US Backtrack

Trump vowed to withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement , a similar move which he made in 2017. It comes after temperatures in 2024 rose more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in a calendar year. US's backtracking raises a simple question, who might become the climate leader,experts argue that the natural successor is China. China has shown an "unusually cooperative" stance at COP-29 in contrast to its historically cautious and sometimes obstructive approach, it disclosed providing over $24bn in climate funding to Developing countries since 2016. What motivates China in doing so is also implicit - Clean energy is its economic dominance in renewable technology (from producing majority of solar panels to wind turbines, lithium batteries & EVs).

4. Advancements in Carbon Market Mechanisms Under Art 6 of Paris Agreement, COP-29 marked a major step forward in creating a comprehensive and transparent framework for global Carbon market.

The key elements are operationalization of Article 6 setting the stage for countries to trade Carbon credits in a structured manner & transparent manner; Preventing double-counting - a single country will be allowed to claim the credit and Standardised rules for carbon credit generation.

Challenges and Shortcomings at COP29: A Critical Assessment

The COP29 summit has concluded with significant climate promises, but a closer look at the discussions and outcomes reveals that many of the critical issues were not adequately addressed, leaving much to be desired in the global fight against climate change.

One of the most glaring issues was inadequate climate financing. Although a commitment was made to triple climate finance to $300 billion annually by 2035, this figure still falls drastically short of the $1.3 trillion required by developing nations and the $2.3–$2.5 trillion needed by emerging markets to meet climate goals. This shortfall undermines the ability of poorer nations to transition to green technologies and adapt to climate impacts. Further compounding this issue is the overreliance on loans instead of grants in the financial package, which increases the already heavy debt burden of developing countries, many of which are struggling with economic challenges.

The failure to address fossil fuel phase-out is another critical point of contention. Despite the historic agreement at COP28 calling for a transition away from fossil fuels, COP29 did not echo this commitment, revealing a lack of consensus on effective mitigation strategies. The result is a continued reliance on fossil fuels, undermining efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

In addition to these gaps in financing and mitigation, global emissions hit a new record in 2023, rising by 1.3%. Many countries remain off track in meeting the 1.5°C target, highlighting the insufficient progress in curbing emissions. The deadlock on the Mitigation Work Programme further exacerbated the situation, with disagreements on fossil fuels stalling meaningful action. The Global Stocktake, intended to assess global progress on climate commitments, also failed to reach a consensus, delaying necessary steps in climate action.

The slow operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) has raised concerns about the ability to effectively address the climate-induced losses in vulnerable nations. Additionally, the postponement of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) updates to COP30 means that the next round of climate action and ambition has been delayed, leaving the planet with little time to respond to the escalating climate crisis.

Further compounding the difficulties in climate action is the stark inequity in global emissions. The G20 members, accounting for 77% of global emissions, continue to dominate the climate conversation, further deepening disparities in per capita and historical emissions among nations. Moreover, there have been concerns about the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists on the negotiations, casting a shadow over the integrity of the summit’s outcomes.

Lastly, the choice of Azerbaijan as the host nation for COP29 has been met with significant criticism. As an oil-rich nation with authoritarian governance, its role in hosting a conference centered on reducing fossil fuel reliance was seen by many as inappropriate, given its vested interest in the fossil fuel industry.

WHAT LIES AHEAD

To address the urgent climate crisis, several critical actions must be prioritized by global leaders. Strengthening climate diplomacy is essential, particularly to foster meaningful dialogue around climate finance and the setting of ambitious mitigation targets, especially for developing nations that are disproportionately affected by climate change. Equally important is the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF), which needs to be expedited to ensure that vulnerable countries receive the necessary support to recover from climate-induced disasters.

Additionally, nations must enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and emission reduction commitments, aiming for a 42% reduction by 2030 and a 57% reduction by 2035 while improving transparency through the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF). It is also crucial to ensure binding renewable energy commitments for all countries, reinforcing the transition to clean energy on a global scale.

Lastly, the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) must be upheld in climate negotiations to ensure that countries with greater historical emissions and resources take the lead in climate action while recognizing the unique challenges faced by developing nations. These steps are critical for creating a fair and effective global response to climate change.

As former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon reminded the world, “There is no Planet B.” Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, emphasised, “The people least responsible for climate change are the ones who suffer the most from its effects. Justice demands that we protect the vulnerable and ensure a fair and equitable transition.”

The road to climate justice remains long, but the time for bold and inclusive action is now.