Geopolitics: The Ever-Shifting Game of Alliances

Shama Khanam

Geopolitics is a constant game of alliances and realignments, where today’s ally can become tomorrow’s adversary. History offers numerous examples of such shifts, the most notable being from the 19th century. Under Tsar Alexander, Russia initially an ally of Napoleon became a formidable enemy by aligning with Austria and England, ultimately leading to the downfall of Napoleon’s empire.

This pattern of shifting alliances, driven by national interests and strategic calculations, continues to define the contemporary geopolitical landscape. A striking example is Pakistan’s oscillating foreign policy between the United States and China. In this column, we will delve into Pakistan’s flip-flop diplomacy, exploring the factors that shape its ever-changing allegiances.

Pakistan, since its inception, has been a nation grappling with complex relationships, often caught between two dominant powers: China and the United States. The metaphor of “two stepfathers” aptly encapsulates this dynamic, with the United States, in particular, often attempting to assert itself as a paternal figure in Pakistan’s geopolitical trajectory.

The United States was among the first nations to establish diplomatic ties with Pakistan, formally recognizing it on August 15, 1947. Over the decades, this relationship has been likened to a roller coaster—oscillating between periods of close cooperation and significant tension. Despite these fluctuations, Pakistan’s military has remained a pivotal player in American strategic calculations, earning the designation of a major non-NATO ally in 2002. However, recent developments, including Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace process and the subsequent Taliban takeover in 2021, have prompted a reassessment of U.S. policies toward Pakistan.

Simultaneously, the burgeoning U.S.-India partnership has further complicated Pakistan’s diplomatic calculus, pushing Islamabad closer to Beijing. This tilt reflects a broader pattern in Pakistan’s foreign policy, wherein it oscillates between powerful benefactors to address immediate economic and military needs. Such dependencies, however, come at a steep price, often compromising national sovereignty and leaving Pakistan vulnerable to external pressures.

A Legacy of Discord

Pakistan’s internal policies have also played a significant role in shaping its current predicament. Since independence, the nation has pursued divisive strategies, including fostering hostility toward India, promoting religious intolerance, and becoming a hub for terrorism. These choices have sown the seeds of internal and external discord, leading to a precarious present where Pakistan faces the adverse consequences of its decisions.

The United States, for its part, has consistently prioritized self-interest in its dealings with Pakistan. Whether under the guise of promoting democracy or addressing global security, U.S. policies have often been transactional, offering support when strategically beneficial. This approach has left Pakistan grappling with the consequences of a diminishing U.S. sphere of influence as Washington pivots toward countering China.

The current geopolitical climate—marked by a new era of Cold War-style tensions between the U.S. and China—has exacerbated Pakistan’s challenges. Recent U.S. sanctions on Pakistan’s entities, such as the National Development Complex (NDC), for its ballistic missile program underscore this strain. Washington’s warnings to its allies against engaging with Pakistan signal a significant shift in its stance, further isolating Islamabad.

Nuclear Ambitions and International Isolation

Pakistan’s nuclear aspirations have also drawn global scrutiny. Its 1998 nuclear tests marked its entry into an exclusive club of nuclear-armed nations, but its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has heightened international concerns. This defiance, coupled with fears of nuclear proliferation, has further isolated Pakistan on the global stage.

Lessons from Pakistan’s Journey

1. Preserve Sovereignty: Safeguarding a nation’s sovereignty is paramount. Reliance on external actors risks undermining national dignity and autonomy, eroding the very essence of self-determination.

2. Promote Balanced Diplomacy: Cultivating robust and multilateral diplomatic engagements fosters stability and mitigates the risks of overdependence on a singular power bloc or geopolitical entity.

3. Prioritize Domestic Development: National progress and the welfare of citizens must remain the cornerstone of state policy, eschewing the pursuit of external validation or excessive reliance on foreign assistance.

4. Uphold National Dignity: A nation must assert its self-respect and resist any form of subordination, regardless of external pressures or the influence of dominant powers.

5. Enhance Strategic Diplomacy: Proficient and pragmatic diplomacy enables nations to adeptly navigate complex global dynamics while safeguarding their core interests and advancing their strategic objectives.

A Cautionary Tale

Pakistan’s reliance on external powers, coupled with neglect of internal development and divisive policies, serves as a cautionary tale. It underscores the importance of sovereignty, strategic diplomacy, and internal stability in ensuring a nation’s global standing. As Pakistan navigates its current challenges, its story offers valuable insights for other nations seeking to secure their place in an increasingly complex world order.