The Trump Phenomenon: Unraveling Global Ripple Effects

MAYANK YADAV

Trump's return to power and his designation as the 47th President of the United States are poised to have multifaceted impacts across the globe. Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, whose approach was more aligned with traditional U.S. presidential diplomacy, the era of Trump 2.0 promises to be more turbulent and America-centric policies. Marked by assertiveness, realpolitik, and a commitment to the "Pax Americana" vision, his leadership is likely to redefine global geopolitics, emphasizing U.S. dominance on the world stage.

Trump and Pax Americana:

Trump is expected to intensify tensions with neighbouring Canada, initiating tariff wars and addressing trade imbalances. His stringent border policies with Mexico will likely become even more uncompromising. Recent proposals such as renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America" underscore his imperial ambitions. Furthermore, his comments about asserting U.S. control over the Panama Canal and extending influence to Greenland reflect an aggressive geopolitical strategy in the Western Hemisphere.

Trump's stance on illegal immigration and trade imbalances highlights his goal of solidifying U.S. dominance. The objective of Trump 2.0 is to promote "Americanism" in Americans and position the United States as indispensable to other nation’s economic and political strategies.

Trump and Anxiety in Europe:

Europe remains mired in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, an outcome of NATO expansionism and Russia’s push to secure its borders. Trump, under the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is expected to advocate for negotiations to end the three-year war. Unlike the Biden administration, Trump 2.0 is likely to encourage warring parties to seek a diplomatic conclusion rather than funding the Ukraine for the continuation of Russia- Ukraine war.

Trump’s influence may also fuel the rise of right-wing governments in nations such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Italy, under Georgia Meloni, is expected to maintain a pragmatic relationship with a Trump-led United States, reflecting shared conservative values. However, Europe could face internal fragmentation as the European Union and NATO encounter growing resistance from member states, leading to potential divergence on critical security and defense matters.

Trump and DE-NATOIZATION:

NATO, originally established by The United states to counter Soviet influence during the Cold War, faces uncertainty under Trump 2.0. Trump has previously criticised NATO as redundant, arguing that Russia no longer poses a significant threat to the U.S. and emphasising the need to address domestic economic issues and challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

Also, He has consistently argued that European NATO members rely too heavily on U.S. financial and military support for their defense. During his first term, he criticized European nations for not meeting NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of their GDP, which was agreed upon at the 2014 Wales Summit. Trump’s second term could amplify this pressure, with demands for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security.He may threaten to reduce U.S. contributions to NATO or even reconsider the U.S.’s role in the alliance to compel European nations to increase their defence budgets.

Trump and the Middle East:

In the Middle East, Trump is expected to continue supporting Israel and fostering its integration with Arab nations, as demonstrated by the Abraham Accords during his first term. The tennure of Trump will act as boon for IMEC and the recent peace deal between Israel and Hamas could be a precursor to the peace and the intergeration of Israel with other in Arab world.

However, Trump’s approach to Iran is likely to remain hawkish. His withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his first term, under pressure from Israeli lobbies, signalled his commitment to containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump 2.0 may further escalate economic coercion against Iran while deepening ties with Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman, a stark contrast to Biden’s critical stance on human rights and the Jamal Khashoggi case.

Trump’s Policies on India:

Trump’s protectionist trade policies could reshape India’s economic and strategic landscape.Increased tariffs on Chinese imports may encourage companies to diversify supply chains, positioning India as a key alternative for manufacturing and technology services. While this shift could strengthen U.S.-India economic ties, potential retaliatory measures from China might challenge Indian exports.

Stricter immigration policies, particularly affecting H-1B visas, could limit opportunities for Indian IT professionals in the U.S., leading to a potential talent drain. However, if Trump prioritizes skilled labor aligned with U.S. economic needs, some Indian professionals might benefit from these changes.

Strategically, Trump’s leadership could enhance India’s alliances with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through frameworks like the Quad, bolstering defense cooperation and military capabilities. Yet, heightened U.S.-China tensions could impact India’s economic and security interests, requiring a delicate balancing act.

Trump and China:

Trump's stance on China is likely to reflect a dual approach combining economic assertiveness and political pragmatism. On the economic front, his focus on "America First" policies and protectionist trade measures suggests heightened belligerence toward China, marked by increased tariffs and trade restrictions. This aligns with his broader goal of reducing U.S. dependency on Chinese goods and pressuring China to renegotiate trade terms more favorable to American interests.

Politically, however, Trump may adopt a more restrained and diplomatic posture to manage regional stability and avoid escalating tensions unnecessarily. His invitation to Xi Jinping for oath ceremony underscores a willingness to engage diplomatically with Beijing, signalling an interest in dialogue even amidst economic disputes. On the sensitive Taiwan issue, Trump is expected to follow the status quo established during the Biden administration, refraining from misadventurism that could significantly alter the delicate balance in cross-strait relations.

This calculated approach reflects his intent to maintain a balance asserting economic dominance while leveraging diplomacy to promote American hegemony in the region. By combining economic pressure on China with political engagement and continuity on key issues like Taiwan, Trump’s strategy seeks to advance U.S. interests in the region without provoking uncontrolled conflict.

Trump and Liberal Institutionalism:

Under a second Trump administration, international institutions, many of which owe their establishment and prominence to U.S. leadership, are likely to face heightened scrutiny and opposition. Trump’s “America First” ideology emphasizes sovereignty over multilateralism, often portraying globalism as detrimental to U.S. interests.

Institutions like the United Nations (UN) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) may become targets of his administration’s criticism. Trump has previously accused these organizations of inefficiency, bias, and overreach, arguing that they often fail to prioritize U.S. concerns. For example, he has criticised the WHO for its biasses and questioned its efficacy during COVID19. Similarly, his administration’s withdrawal from the UNESCO and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and threats to exit the WTO & WTO highlight his distrust of international frameworks that, in his view, undermine U.S. economic competitiveness.

By challenging the legitimacy and relevance of these institutions, Trump 2.0 could weaken their ability to function as platforms for global governance. This backlash may result in reduced U.S. contributions, less cooperation, and diminished influence, ultimately undermining their credibility on the global stage. Such a stance could create a power vacuum, providing opportunities for other nations, particularly China, to reshape these institutions to align with their own strategic interests.

In conclusion, Trump 2.0 is poised to usher in a transformative and unpredictable era in global geopolitics. His assertive nationalism and imperial ambitions will challenge international norms, disrupt alliances, and redefine the global order. As nations brace for this turbulent chapter, recalibrating strategies and adapting to uncertainties will be essential in navigating the evolving landscape under Trump’s renewed leadership.