Alaska Summit: Trump’s Peace Gamble, Russia-Ukraine Deadlock, and U.S. Pressure on India

MAYANK YADAV

On August 15, when Russian president Vladimir Putin landed on USA soil, Alaska to meet US president Donald Trump, everyone was keenly waiting for the substantial outcome on the peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the outcome came out on the predicted line i.e., failure to reach any substantial peace agreement, which President Trump was saying as the agenda of the summit.

The reason behind the mounting of this war has been cited differently by both the parties which are involved in the war. Russia’s version of waging war against Ukraine is due to the NATO expansion on the eastern side of Europe and next to Russia’s border which Russia perceives as an existential threat by the West. Whereas the other side, that is Ukraine and Europe, alleges the Russia-Ukraine war is the outcome of Russia’s imperial and expansionist policy under President Putin, which Europe sees as a security threat against themselves by Russia. The most recent remark by French president Emmanuel Macron was that Putin is an ogre at the doorstep of Europe. Hence, both sides have their own story of raging the Russia-Ukraine war.

Alaska summit and complex nature of war

Before Trump, the collective West with Ukraine had prepared a peace dossier to conclude the ongoing war with an absurd and impractical approach which was famously called the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland, 2024, where Russia was uninvited to talk about their side of interest for concluding the war. However, after the advent of Trump, it changed the erstwhile notion of diplomacy, neglected Russia since the Istanbul conference 2022, and brought Russia to the forefront for future peace dialogue.

President Trump called the Russia-Ukraine war, the war of the erstwhile US president Biden administration, as Biden with Europe called for the eastward expansion of NATO, which could have been avoided as it was not relevant to do so. Therefore, Mr. Trump started saying that if he was the president at that time, the war could not have happened. All these arguments he used in his election campaign, to appeal to his voters. Also, now whenever he feels that the conclusion of war is not in his hand, he seldomly uses the Biden analogy to justify his failure to bring peace, which he said many times.

The Alaska Summit, which was said to bring some sort of peace or agreement, failed due to the presence of complexity and turbidity in the interests of Ukraine and Russia, and the diplomatic demands of both the parties.

Russia’s version and demand before any peace agreement revolve around three broad parameters: first, recognition of Crimea and the other 4 oblasts of Ukraine as independent territories, hence a geographical status quo of territory, which has been exceeded by Russia since the beginning of the war. The second key demand is the neutrality of Ukraine in present and future, not to join the western camp as Russia alleged the West for the Maidan revolt, which ousted the earlier ruler of Ukraine president Yanukovych for maintaining neutrality and not being in favour of joining NATO. The third key demand is that Ukraine should not be allowed to develop its offensive capabilities which can throw a security challenge against Russia in the near future, and all these three demands of Russia are unacceptable to Europe as well as Ukraine.

On the other hand, Kyiv and Europe’s ceasefire version is that the territory occupied by Russia should be given back to Ukraine and Ukraine should be allowed to pursue independent foreign policy where it should be independent to choose its ally. Another one is Russia should compensate Ukraine for the devastation and destruction of Ukraine as a war indemnity. And the foremost disputed demand is that European boots should be allowed in preserving the security and integrity of Ukraine in any future.

Card left for the stakeholders

The current impending war is more complex than the first dialogue summit of Istanbul in 2022. Since then, Europe has been exhausted by providing defence equipment and economic aid to Ukraine. Also, the endurance shown by the Russian economy against the western sanctions paves little room for the West to exert pressure on Russia. Currently, the West is left with only a few evident options like secondary sanctions on Russia’s trade partners like India and China.

Continuing aid to Ukraine by providing defence support also has limitations as Europe itself is facing production issues in meeting the demand for defence equipment.And the extreme option, sending its army directly into the war in Ukraine to support against Russia. But under Trump, it would be near impossible as it will drag NATO along with the USA which can have far-reaching consequences.

On the other side, Russia’s continuation of war against Ukraine is not as difficult as what Europe is facing as Russia has almost immunised itself from western actions like sanctions and arming Ukraine. It also increases its defence procurement whereas the war of attrition is going hard for Europe as they lack production to meet the current demand during the Russia-Ukraine war. For example, on behalf of NATO, Germany is providing Patriot defence missile batteries to Ukraine as the production of defence systems is not able to match the current demand. Also, Russia is on the upper hand where Ukraine lost almost 22 percent of land to Russia and the Ukrainian army is facing a shortage of manpower as the majority of soldiers died in this bloody war.

By looking at such complex sides, Trump is left with a few possible actions like continuing arms supply, what Biden did in the past. But it will go against his MAGA campaign, where he put out his idea to move the USA away from any unwarranted war, and to conclude peace in the Russia-Ukraine war. Secondly, direct war with Russia but it can amount to a nuclear war between two nuclear superpowers, which will not only end the Russia-Ukraine war, but also the entire humanity on earth. Thirdly, Trump can use his secondary sanction bluff against Russia through the Russia Sanction Bill where the USA punishes the importers of Russian goods like China and India. But this move of Donald Trump will not have desirable legitimacy as the USA itself is heavily dependent on China for its import of critical mineral resources. Pushing India will lead to building a more convergent atmosphere for cooperating with Russia, and also with China.

The most desirable action Trump can take, he can put the United States away from the war and tell Europeans to support Ukraine. The USA will only engage in utmost emergent times or for any peace deal in future to negotiate on behalf of the West with Russia because this may also resemble his MAGA doctrine.

From Tariffs to Sanctions: The USA’s Pattern of Pressuring India

India has been blackmailed by USA since its independence at different times as US wants bandwagons not partners whereas India, which is a civilisational state in Asia, always forbids USA’s such instance. During the 1950s when the Cold War just started, the USA pressurised India to join the US camp against the USSR by skewing the supply of PL 480 to India, as India lacked the production of wheat to meet its domestic demand after independence. However, India did not bow in front of US pressure and pursued its independent policy through the Non-Aligned Movement. India launched its Green Revolution program in the 1960s, which later made India self-reliant as well as a wheat surplus nation.

Similarly, during the 1971 India-Pakistan war, the USA sent its aircraft carrier into the Indian Ocean and pressurised India not to support the free Bangladesh movement against the Pakistan Army. However, India with the help of the USSR faced sternly such a threat from the USA and defeated Pakistan in the war and tore it into two parts with a new nation in South Asia, Bangladesh.

Similarly, India faced US sanctions after Pokhran I and more specifically Pokhran II where the USA sanctioned India from availing loans from the World Bank and IMF at the time when India was struggling for sustainable forex and suspended the military and economic assistance from the West. However, such unilateral action showed India that single-handed dependence of the Global South on the USA and the West is detrimental for the independence of their foreign policy and later founded a non-west forum, BRICS, as an alternative to the western institutions.

Currently, the Trump administration is blackmailing India for buying Russia’s oil, which they allege funds Russia in war and bypasses USA and western efforts to put pressure on Russia. Hence, they forward the policy to put pressure on India like calling for sanctioning India so that Russia can be pressurised to end this war. However, such a step is ill-informed and works like a self-goal of the USA because doing so further increases more cooperation between India and Russia, as India loves to pursue its independent foreign policy and dislikes any kind of dictation from the other powers, and on the other hand, Russia needs a strong partner to support Moscow in the hard hours of the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, Trump’s tariff policy against India will pave a healthy ground for more cooperation between India and Russia.

Also, on China’s front, Trump’s effect is paving India and China towards navigating their foreign policy towards more cooperation, which was absent since the Galwan crisis of 2020 and it will negatively impact the US efforts of more than two decades to build India-USA deep ties, which took lots of efforts and difficult times. Therefore, US bullying of India can have far-reaching consequences, which could be irreplaceable and irreparable as they change the notion in Indians that the USA is one of the most trusted partners of India for many years.

The current hour for India is difficult with huge economic and strategic challenges where the USA abandoned India in the Indo-Pacific strategy and at the same time deepened its ties with India’s formidable enemy, Pakistan, in the post-Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor world. In such difficulty, there lie opportunities like India reaped in the past e.g. Green Revolution, formation of Bangladesh, and foundation of BRICS etc. In short-term remedy against USA sanctions, the Government of India should provide subsidies to India’s exporters to the USA and search other markets like Europe, Russia, and Africa for its export. Also, Russia should provide more tax rebates from oil imports by India so that the trade deficit should nullify the immediate effect of USA sanctions on India’s forex and economy.

Long-term, India should promote ease of doing business by cutting tax and promotion of schemes like Production Linked Incentive and relevant skill development programs to compete in other markets.

Future course of Russia-Ukraine war

Russia, which wants a permanent peace settlement of this war, whereas Ukraine and Europe, which want an immediate ceasefire agreement, has made a condition of a big bottleneck in the conclusion of the war. As the former alleges a ceasefire is a time-buy of the West to rearm Ukraine while the latter perceives a permanent immediate peace settlement will lead to the conquering of Ukraine territory by Russia permanently. If diplomacy fails again, where no party wants to cede their interest, as Russia, which sees Ukraine as once part of the USSR will not tolerate Ukraine joining the western bloc. Similarly, for Europe, this battle is the war of hegemony and self-respect of Europe in the western hemisphere which is above the territorial war. Then the Russia-Ukraine war will likely be settled more on the battlefield than on the diplomatic table.