Dragon and Elephant Treading on a Fragile Bridge.

MAYANK YADAV

China and India are the two dominant players of Asia and the foremost competitors against each other, sharing a history of war and rivalry for many decades. In the 21st century, the height of tension was reached during the Galwan Valley clash(2020), where both army members were killed and injured and stood against each other for four years. The shackle of direct confrontation was brokered by Russia in 2024 at the Kazan Summit. Since then, diplomatic engagement between both nations has remained in the driver’s seat. Recently, PM Modi, in a podcast, applauded the significance of the India-China relationship. Such a statement by PM Modi was appreciated and acknowledged by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. However, the structural realities of international politics suggest that this détente may be more strategic pause than a genuine peace.

The Fragile Bridge:

The ball of peace between Beijing and New Delhi is always in the court of China. No matter how much New Delhi tries to promote the hand of peace, it is up to China how to carry the

relationship between both neighbours. Almost all the skirmishes and wars between India and China have been initiated by China, either by hook or crook, i.e., direct or proxy wars againstIndia. But what led to the sudden enlightenment of China to build peace with India? Or why doesChina need such idea of peace? Or does the peace have some other meaning?

The Chinese history of peace is not peaceful. What they project to be peaceful, their dogma of the peaceful rise of China, is seen with suspicion by the world, including India. The peace talks between both, and from the end of China, are not mutually developed; rather, the structural deformity of geopolitics after Trump and the Chinese interest pushes China toward peace negotiations. In the future four turbulent years, China aims to regain itself to empower itself for the race to the chair of superpower. The time-bargaining tactics of China are well-researched. China will not get such opportunistic time in a chaotic world to empower itself. Such truculent years China sees as opportunities to fill the vacuums and enrich its capabilities vis-à-vis the United States because of the rise of feuds with the West and Trump distancing the United States from Europe.

The advent of Trump and the USA trade war 2.0 against China, the shrinking Chinese economy(between 4-5% GDP), and setbacks from the debt-trap policies of China, where China provided easy loans to developing nations, have increased their economic vulnerability. Here, China sees India as an opportunity to have economic ties in truce period, which will provide a sort of interim relief to its economy. Moreover, restoring ties with India will back china’s instance of peaceful rise around the world especially in Europe after trump, which was previously an adversary of China. Hence, it will show that the Chinese are distancing themselves from their bellicosity toward peace. Also, the distant U.S. foreign policy by questioning and pulling away from global institutions like WHO and UNESCO and being belligerent toward Canada, paves the window for a revisionist superpower, which can lead the world in a more peaceful manner than the United States of America.

The failure of the CPEC project and the constant attacks by the Baloch Liberation Army on the CPEC project, which was meant to encircle India strategically, giving them little room to counter India in the region through its String of Pearls policy, have weakened China’s position as India shares good ties with Sri Lanka and the Maldives. The coupling of the United States with Russia under trump, which was 180 degrees opposite to the previous Biden administration that led to a deep convergence of mutual interest between Russia and China, has been altered by Trump. China is not happy with this new relationship, as the Russia-Ukraine war was paving the world with a block of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, aligning with Chinese interest.

The essential aspect in predicting the move of a nation-state is that we should read the actions rather than the sayings. China believes in a philosophy of keeping India busy on its border, either by confronting directly or indirectly, because it will deviate India’s resources to the defence budget, from economic development, which China knows is the real threat from India, as the defence budget can only be sustained by a big pocket and Big pocket comes from economic development. The recent action of China, on one side lopsidedly pushing for cooperation with India, while on the other hand announcing it will provide fifth-generation fighter craft to Pakistan, reflects such calculus that compels India to increase its defence budget instead of allocating on economic development.

Also, suspicion emerges when the same administration, in power for decades, which has not had a good record of ties with India, wants peace with India; it may have some mala fide objective. Sudden enlightenment can only occur with a change in the geopolitical scenario, which we discussed above, or any change in regime, like in the case of Trump with Russia. Therefore, Dragon and Elephant Treading on a Fragile Bridge i.e, the peace is not natural but artificial in character shaped by the current geopolitical switch. When such an order gets rearranged in favour of China, the world will witness a powerful China 3.0.

India’s Position: competing with China

China is far ahead of India in terms of real power politics and many other spheres. Economically, China’s nominal GDP lies between $18-$19 trillion, whereas India’s nominal GDP lies between $3.7 to $4 trillion, a stark asymmetry. China spends 8 to 10% of its GDP on infrastructure annually; on the other side, India spends only 4 to 5% of its GDP. In terms of defence, China has numerical and technological superiority with a larger budget-and better air, land, and naval power. China spends $225 billion on its defense, whereas IndiaDefence expenditure halts by $75 billion. Moreover, there lies a horizontal difference within their defence capabilities: China is in developmental phase of sixth-generation aircraft on the other side, India has not yet developed a fifth-generation aircraft.

In the realm of space and technology, China has developed its own international space station mission named Tiangong in 2022 and is aiming for a moon base by 2030 to compete with the United States. Also, it has further develops its own AI learning model,DeepSeek, which brings China to the table of the few elite countries having their own model of AI. On the other hand, India spends only $90 billion on science and tech, which is five times less than China, and will start its space station program by 2028 which will likely to complete in 2035.

Demographically, China is doing highly appreciable work when youths are

getting distracted easily in the digital age. While the population of the rest of the world is busy doom-scrolling, China is providing technological skill training to its youth since their formative years. To prevent youth from the distraction of social media, China has set up anti-addiction algorithms to prevent mindless consumption and a real-name registration for using social media platforms. However, such efforts are absent in India, as they are seen as infringing on the freedom of speech of individuals.

Hence, the developmental drag  between India and China has been rising exponentially. As china is leveraging its capabilities to compete with the U.S. in the globe, India finds itself in a passive position, struggling to keep pace with the evolving strategic landscape.

Therefore, China uses collaboration with India at a time of chaos around the world and feuds within the West. China perceives this as an opportunity to develop itself, which is known as its Developmental Peace Theory: silence for a while to shout more in the future. India should also use such time to develop its capabilities by increasing and rationalising its defence budget, as a chunk of its defence expenditure goes to revenue expenditure, which has less significance for defence capabilities. India should invite other international players to work with India on modern cutting-edge technology, like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and allocate more funds to science and tech. Also, the government should encourage a think-tank culture and new warfare models and war games to have a comprehensive and strategic roadmap for any future war strategy with China. India should act as a catalyst to foster good ties between Russia and the USA to counterbalance China.

China is waging itself to be the next hegemonic power of the world by countering the United States of America. But the power struggle between Beijing and Washington inherently will leave China far ahead of India. If India fails to maintain pace with China, such power asymmetry between India and China will act as a fragile bridge, as in international politics, power dominates. No two powers feel safe when they are neighbours. Therefore, India needs its own developmental peace to counter China’s peaceful development. India should develop a comprehensive strategy with strong action to empower itself rather than wasting time celebrating such peace with China. Sun Tzu’s Art of War writes, “Opportunities multiply as they are seized,” i.e., use peacetime to expand influence

and build alliances to empower itself for the future.